The New York Times reports that my dream has come true: a cheap desktop box targeted at average consumers (how else can one interpret availability at WalMart) that comes with Linux. Doesn't this void the need for those philanthropically developed 100$ machines for the developing world? What is the catch (besides the lack of a monitor)?
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There is frequently a lot of speculation on desktop linux usage - "this is the year of linux on the desktop" and other such quotes are easy to see in articles dated from 2003 or earlier. But what really is happening with linux on the desktop? I tire of seeing articles full of speculation but with little or no data to back up there claims.
First, by "desktop" users, what we are interested in are users who will complain to companies when there web cam, printer, or scanner is not supported in linux. Users who will drive a massive increase in linux support from hardware and software suppliers. So what is the best way to track this user?
Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of good ways to do this, but of them all, the web is the most reliable. Sure, it doesn't include that linux install you put on grandma's machine she uses only for word processing. But personal computer users generally browse the web, and it's better than guessing at downloads of linux distributions (which don't always relate well with actual users anyhow).
In the search for web statistics, we need a comprehensive assortment of web sites if we want to infer averages from them (looking at slashdot vs microsoft.com will certainly give you much different results). Ideally, we would look to the most popular search engine, but Google doesn't release it's stats on the OS running the browsers that visit it's homepage.
Instead, we'll settled for Net Applications, which gathers it's statistics from a fairly comprehensive number of sites. April's data has just arrived, and as I suspected when I saw a small up-tick last month, the up swing in linux usage is well-above the noise floor. For the months of March and April, growth was an astounding 36% and 40% respectively!
Sure, maybe we shouldn't get too excited - the percentages are still very low. In the years since Net Applications began gather data on linux OS usage when browsing (beginning October 2004 they added a specific "linux" OS catagory), never once has the percentage ticked to even 0.5%, with the percentage hovering most of the time between 0.3 and 0.4%. Then, in March it shot to 0.57%, but even this, although exciting, could have been a noisy spike. However, the recent jump to 0.8% is unmistakable - usage is definitely on the rise. Is this still a pathetically tiny market share? As we've seen with Firefox, 10% is enough to force web sites to write code compatible with more than just IE, and it's also enough to force hardware manufactures to care a lot more about supporting their devices in linux. And with more and better hardware support, it will only get easier for users to make the switch. At the average percentage growth rate of March and April, it would only take 8 months before linux would have a 10.5% market share! Of course that is highly unlikely to happen, but it is reason to celebrate.
First, by "desktop" users, what we are interested in are users who will complain to companies when there web cam, printer, or scanner is not supported in linux. Users who will drive a massive increase in linux support from hardware and software suppliers. So what is the best way to track this user?
Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of good ways to do this, but of them all, the web is the most reliable. Sure, it doesn't include that linux install you put on grandma's machine she uses only for word processing. But personal computer users generally browse the web, and it's better than guessing at downloads of linux distributions (which don't always relate well with actual users anyhow).
In the search for web statistics, we need a comprehensive assortment of web sites if we want to infer averages from them (looking at slashdot vs microsoft.com will certainly give you much different results). Ideally, we would look to the most popular search engine, but Google doesn't release it's stats on the OS running the browsers that visit it's homepage.
Instead, we'll settled for Net Applications, which gathers it's statistics from a fairly comprehensive number of sites. April's data has just arrived, and as I suspected when I saw a small up-tick last month, the up swing in linux usage is well-above the noise floor. For the months of March and April, growth was an astounding 36% and 40% respectively!
Sure, maybe we shouldn't get too excited - the percentages are still very low. In the years since Net Applications began gather data on linux OS usage when browsing (beginning October 2004 they added a specific "linux" OS catagory), never once has the percentage ticked to even 0.5%, with the percentage hovering most of the time between 0.3 and 0.4%. Then, in March it shot to 0.57%, but even this, although exciting, could have been a noisy spike. However, the recent jump to 0.8% is unmistakable - usage is definitely on the rise. Is this still a pathetically tiny market share? As we've seen with Firefox, 10% is enough to force web sites to write code compatible with more than just IE, and it's also enough to force hardware manufactures to care a lot more about supporting their devices in linux. And with more and better hardware support, it will only get easier for users to make the switch. At the average percentage growth rate of March and April, it would only take 8 months before linux would have a 10.5% market share! Of course that is highly unlikely to happen, but it is reason to celebrate.
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Somebody linked to this on Digg, lol. Indeed I am very much a geek inside...
Breaking up with you, your daughter is prettier and easier
Breaking up with you, your daughter is prettier and easier
Dear Loved One:
By now you probably already know that I am having an affair with the youngest of your daughters. It’s not like I planned this to happen, but I couldn’t help it, she is younger, sexier, prettier and easier. Yes, she is easier than you, and this is a moment in my life when I just want that. I got tired of you playing hard to get. You are just too complicated, with your inner conflicts and your multiple personality disorder trying to be everything to everyone. You just can’t please everybody you know?
Debian: I will always have a place in my heart for you, but I’m with Ubuntu now and we are very happy together. Please stop attacking her. It’s your fault, not hers.
Love.
Gustavo Picon
No offense intended to any Debian lovers though, as Mark Shuttleworth said in his blog "it’s absolutely my intention to see that Ubuntu is a constructive part of the broader Debian landscape" and Debian's success is critical to Ubuntu's...
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I'd say this is pretty damn sweet. About half way through they really start doing sweet shit... I'm not sure the next version of Ubuntu will have this by default, but I'm guessing it's going to be very easy to setup (it already is fairly easy).
Hmm, embedding isn't working for my flash player, here's the link if it isn't working for you either...Link to youtube.
Hmm, embedding isn't working for my flash player, here's the link if it isn't working for you either...Link to youtube.
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Here are the results from the 2006 Desktop Linux Market survey and the article about the results.
I always find this kind of thing interesting, mostly just out of curiosity. Ubuntu seems to be dominating today, but I personally hope it continues to grow to somewhere a little above 50%. I'm one of those who believe choice is definitely good, but too much choice is can cause chaos. Although things like the Linux standard base might help with this (although LSB seems to have had some problems, but still the idea and projects like it seem like they could really help), if one distro can maintain 50% or more marketshare, I think 3rd parties would be much more inclined to write drivers/commercial software that would be easy to install and setup. yep, commercial software - while I don't think we should have to pay for core software like the operating system, commercial software is very important for certain applications...
I always find this kind of thing interesting, mostly just out of curiosity. Ubuntu seems to be dominating today, but I personally hope it continues to grow to somewhere a little above 50%. I'm one of those who believe choice is definitely good, but too much choice is can cause chaos. Although things like the Linux standard base might help with this (although LSB seems to have had some problems, but still the idea and projects like it seem like they could really help), if one distro can maintain 50% or more marketshare, I think 3rd parties would be much more inclined to write drivers/commercial software that would be easy to install and setup. yep, commercial software - while I don't think we should have to pay for core software like the operating system, commercial software is very important for certain applications...
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but i did assume it was "even available at WalMart", not "only available at WalMart" (which after some online research proves to be the case), which is, as you point out, such a depressing phenomenon that if i think about it for too long i am forced to cheer myself up by watching JibJab Brothers' "Bix Box Mart"